India is navigating one of its most complex foreign policy challenges in years. With the U.S. slapping a 50% tariff on a swath of Indian exports — half of that due to a new 25% penalty for importing Russian oil — New Delhi is weighing how to protect its trade lifelines while keeping its strategic relationships intact.
Alliances — and the way India plays them
India’s diplomacy is rarely about choosing one camp. Instead, it’s a web of partnerships, each serving a different purpose:
- QUAD — the Indo-Pacific forum with the U.S., Japan and Australia — is about patrols, joint drills, and the slow build-out of supply-chain alternatives.
- Russia — still the biggest single arms supplier, though no longer dominant; the latest SIPRI numbers put its share of Indian imports at around 36%, down sharply from a decade ago.
- France — Paris is more than an arms vendor; it’s a technology partner and, in Delhi’s eyes, a political hedge in case Washington tilts away.
- I2U2 — a newer grouping with Israel, the UAE and the U.S., driven by ports, food corridors, and private capital.
None of these links are airtight alliances. They’re levers India can pull — or ease off — depending on the moment.
The GE–HAL gamble
One of the most closely watched test cases for U.S.–India defense cooperation is the General Electric–Hindustan Aeronautics project to build F414 jet engines in India. The idea is to push past the stage of 'buying finished gear' into co-production with genuine technology transfer. The U.S. gave export clearance in 2023. Whether that promise holds up over the years — and through political turbulence like these tariffs — is what will tell defense planners if this relationship can handle stress.
A brief pause? Or just posturing?
When Reuters reported that India was hitting the brakes on some American arms buys, it made headlines in both countries. A few hours later, Delhi flatly denied it. Maybe it’s a shot across the bow. Maybe it’s simply officials flexing for their own audiences. Either way, the public line is that procurement is still moving.
China’s constant shadow
If the tariff story feels distant, the China story doesn’t. The 2014 Chumar standoff — Chinese and Indian troops eyeball-to-eyeball during Xi Jinping’s state visit — rattled Delhi’s confidence in 'managing' the relationship. Doklam in 2017, the deadly Galwan clash in 2020… each episode reinforced the lesson: China will probe, sometimes in the middle of a handshake. That’s why Delhi works the QUAD, and why high-altitude road and airstrip projects get priority no matter what’s happening in Washington.
Where the tariffs bite
More than half of India’s exports to the U.S. now face the 50% rate. That’s everything from pharma ingredients to high-end textiles. Small exporters are already lobbying for relief. Some are asking the government to step in with credit guarantees or help them find new buyers. It’s not clear how long they can hold out if those orders evaporate.
If you were in South Block…
Officials are gaming out different paths, none of them perfect:
- Dig in — keep taking Russian oil, wear the tariffs, count on energy stability to offset the hit.
- Cut a deal — a carve-out here, a phased adjustment there, to cool tempers in D.C. without losing face at home.
- Shift supply — start swapping some of those Russian barrels for Middle Eastern or African crude, even if it costs more.
Pick one, and you solve one problem — but you probably create another.
And then?
Multi-alignment still makes sense for India. But tariffs at this level force choices that can’t be finessed forever. The real question is whether Delhi and Washington can keep the security side of the relationship in one box and the trade fight in another — or whether the two start bleeding into each other.
